Monday, November 21, 2005
Bird Flu Still Worries Me
The outbreak of bird flu every now and then worries me. Quantifying the probability of such outcome is beyond me. It remains anybody's guess whether the disease will mutate into a form that is transmitted easily from human to human. To date bird flu still has a higher human fatality rate than SARS. The severity of any outbreak would be related to the ease with which the virus could be caught (potentially high, given that most flu strains are highly contagious) and the degree of immunity in the general population. The economic impact of an outbreak of bird flu will depend on how quickly the virus spreads, and the collective political and social response.
It would be a miracle that the virus fails to mutate into a form which is readily transmitted between humans. Human casualties and fatalities remains small and even the bird populations may acquire natural immunity to the virus. The economic impact would be small, apart from on poultry rearing and other related agricultural sectors.
Suppose the virus mutates into a human-to-human transmitted form but is restricted to small-scale outbreaks. Public confidence would be shaken but people would continue to go to work, except in the immediate areas of outbreak where quarantine may be imposed. People in countries where there had been an outbreak would almost cerainly avoid places where human-to-human trnasmission appeared most likely (airplanes, shops, restaurants, cinemas etc). Intra regional travel and tourism would be worst affected. The duration would be uncertain.
If luck is not on our side and there are major outbreaks. The impact on economic activity would be severe as the fear of infection would keep many people away from work given that the virus is far more contagious than SARS. A "no-work" policy in areas of serious outbreak may also be imposed by health authorities. Absenteeism could become widespread. Cashflow problems could threatened the financial viability of some local firms, creating knock-on effects inthe banking systems.
We cannot rule out a worldwide bird flu pandemic. Given the prevalence of international air travel, it is possible to have a pandemic with far-reaching social and economic consequences. WHO estimated 2m-7m deaths worldwide in the "best case" scenario while some scientists suggested an upper bound of 300m. Whatever the actual casualty levels, it seems clear that the economic impact would be severe. Lost output and jobs and disruption to global trade, financial wealth destroyed thru a decline in asset prices. The economic cost would depend on the extent and duration of the epidemic. This in turn would depend on the discovery and availability of effective tratments or the population eventually acquiring resistance to the virus. The only bright spot is that histroy has shown that economies have the capacity to recover quickly from such outbreaks of disease.
It would be a miracle that the virus fails to mutate into a form which is readily transmitted between humans. Human casualties and fatalities remains small and even the bird populations may acquire natural immunity to the virus. The economic impact would be small, apart from on poultry rearing and other related agricultural sectors.
Suppose the virus mutates into a human-to-human transmitted form but is restricted to small-scale outbreaks. Public confidence would be shaken but people would continue to go to work, except in the immediate areas of outbreak where quarantine may be imposed. People in countries where there had been an outbreak would almost cerainly avoid places where human-to-human trnasmission appeared most likely (airplanes, shops, restaurants, cinemas etc). Intra regional travel and tourism would be worst affected. The duration would be uncertain.
If luck is not on our side and there are major outbreaks. The impact on economic activity would be severe as the fear of infection would keep many people away from work given that the virus is far more contagious than SARS. A "no-work" policy in areas of serious outbreak may also be imposed by health authorities. Absenteeism could become widespread. Cashflow problems could threatened the financial viability of some local firms, creating knock-on effects inthe banking systems.
We cannot rule out a worldwide bird flu pandemic. Given the prevalence of international air travel, it is possible to have a pandemic with far-reaching social and economic consequences. WHO estimated 2m-7m deaths worldwide in the "best case" scenario while some scientists suggested an upper bound of 300m. Whatever the actual casualty levels, it seems clear that the economic impact would be severe. Lost output and jobs and disruption to global trade, financial wealth destroyed thru a decline in asset prices. The economic cost would depend on the extent and duration of the epidemic. This in turn would depend on the discovery and availability of effective tratments or the population eventually acquiring resistance to the virus. The only bright spot is that histroy has shown that economies have the capacity to recover quickly from such outbreaks of disease.
