Tuesday, November 29, 2005
Conversation with Philip
J English in an interview following Hurricane Katrina said that New Orleans is like no other city in the United States. It has a very different sensibility. New Orleanians know that the city is in a bowl and the levees hold the water back and hurricanes are a threat. But life goes on. The sensibility of New Orleans is to live for today. From a Northeastern, New England perspective, New Orleans would be characteriszed as having a self-indulgent, hedonistic approach to life. But that's another culture on the outside looking in, making judgments. The residents of New Orleans have an extraordinary loyalty to their city. So an awful lot of people from New Orleans are not going to care that there will be more hurricanes threatening the city. New Orleans is where they live and where their hearts live, and they're going to be in New Orleans. And if they have to leave when hurricanes are coming, then thell leave - but they will go back.
Maybe New Orleans' sensibility is just plain human nature. We hate changes (or rather we love security). Given a choice we will revert back to the starting point or our comfort zone. When we have adapted to a difficult environment, the risks became acceptable or even disappeared. Why was San Francisco rebuilt after the quake and Tokyo remains what it is today? What about the many villagers who return to the homes at the foot of volcanoes, until the next big one comes. The human tribe is resilient and adaptable but there is a streak in stubbornness in all of us?
Maybe New Orleans' sensibility is just plain human nature. We hate changes (or rather we love security). Given a choice we will revert back to the starting point or our comfort zone. When we have adapted to a difficult environment, the risks became acceptable or even disappeared. Why was San Francisco rebuilt after the quake and Tokyo remains what it is today? What about the many villagers who return to the homes at the foot of volcanoes, until the next big one comes. The human tribe is resilient and adaptable but there is a streak in stubbornness in all of us?
Monday, November 21, 2005
Bird Flu Still Worries Me
The outbreak of bird flu every now and then worries me. Quantifying the probability of such outcome is beyond me. It remains anybody's guess whether the disease will mutate into a form that is transmitted easily from human to human. To date bird flu still has a higher human fatality rate than SARS. The severity of any outbreak would be related to the ease with which the virus could be caught (potentially high, given that most flu strains are highly contagious) and the degree of immunity in the general population. The economic impact of an outbreak of bird flu will depend on how quickly the virus spreads, and the collective political and social response.
It would be a miracle that the virus fails to mutate into a form which is readily transmitted between humans. Human casualties and fatalities remains small and even the bird populations may acquire natural immunity to the virus. The economic impact would be small, apart from on poultry rearing and other related agricultural sectors.
Suppose the virus mutates into a human-to-human transmitted form but is restricted to small-scale outbreaks. Public confidence would be shaken but people would continue to go to work, except in the immediate areas of outbreak where quarantine may be imposed. People in countries where there had been an outbreak would almost cerainly avoid places where human-to-human trnasmission appeared most likely (airplanes, shops, restaurants, cinemas etc). Intra regional travel and tourism would be worst affected. The duration would be uncertain.
If luck is not on our side and there are major outbreaks. The impact on economic activity would be severe as the fear of infection would keep many people away from work given that the virus is far more contagious than SARS. A "no-work" policy in areas of serious outbreak may also be imposed by health authorities. Absenteeism could become widespread. Cashflow problems could threatened the financial viability of some local firms, creating knock-on effects inthe banking systems.
We cannot rule out a worldwide bird flu pandemic. Given the prevalence of international air travel, it is possible to have a pandemic with far-reaching social and economic consequences. WHO estimated 2m-7m deaths worldwide in the "best case" scenario while some scientists suggested an upper bound of 300m. Whatever the actual casualty levels, it seems clear that the economic impact would be severe. Lost output and jobs and disruption to global trade, financial wealth destroyed thru a decline in asset prices. The economic cost would depend on the extent and duration of the epidemic. This in turn would depend on the discovery and availability of effective tratments or the population eventually acquiring resistance to the virus. The only bright spot is that histroy has shown that economies have the capacity to recover quickly from such outbreaks of disease.
It would be a miracle that the virus fails to mutate into a form which is readily transmitted between humans. Human casualties and fatalities remains small and even the bird populations may acquire natural immunity to the virus. The economic impact would be small, apart from on poultry rearing and other related agricultural sectors.
Suppose the virus mutates into a human-to-human transmitted form but is restricted to small-scale outbreaks. Public confidence would be shaken but people would continue to go to work, except in the immediate areas of outbreak where quarantine may be imposed. People in countries where there had been an outbreak would almost cerainly avoid places where human-to-human trnasmission appeared most likely (airplanes, shops, restaurants, cinemas etc). Intra regional travel and tourism would be worst affected. The duration would be uncertain.
If luck is not on our side and there are major outbreaks. The impact on economic activity would be severe as the fear of infection would keep many people away from work given that the virus is far more contagious than SARS. A "no-work" policy in areas of serious outbreak may also be imposed by health authorities. Absenteeism could become widespread. Cashflow problems could threatened the financial viability of some local firms, creating knock-on effects inthe banking systems.
We cannot rule out a worldwide bird flu pandemic. Given the prevalence of international air travel, it is possible to have a pandemic with far-reaching social and economic consequences. WHO estimated 2m-7m deaths worldwide in the "best case" scenario while some scientists suggested an upper bound of 300m. Whatever the actual casualty levels, it seems clear that the economic impact would be severe. Lost output and jobs and disruption to global trade, financial wealth destroyed thru a decline in asset prices. The economic cost would depend on the extent and duration of the epidemic. This in turn would depend on the discovery and availability of effective tratments or the population eventually acquiring resistance to the virus. The only bright spot is that histroy has shown that economies have the capacity to recover quickly from such outbreaks of disease.
Friday, November 18, 2005
Now and Then
A number of us were intrigued by the recent news report of a man who committed suicide over a girl he met at a pub "Now and Then". The man also nominated 30% of his CPF to the woman. So where is this place? What kind of people frequent this joint?I had joked with Mindy that if I feel suicidal, she might just find me sitting at the "dark corner under the TV", all alone. Mindy has in turn teasingly replied that she had wanted to visit the place too as some guy may just nominate 30% of his CPF savings to her. Chee Yong too expressed the same sentiment and ofcourse we quickly reminded him there was nothing to suggest that Now and Then was a gay pub.
Tonight 7 of us decidded to check out that place. And surprise number one - Now and Then is just one block away form our office! We walked by the place so often but no one ever noticed it.
Surprise 2 - The place is cold and dark and almost every lady there was Filipino. What about the men? Half were caucasians and the others, local Chinese like the 6 of us. The youngest must be from our group - early 20, and the oldest present must be me!
Surprise 3 - There was bar-top dancing, hugging and kissing. But surprise number 3 mus be our disappointment too. Throughout the night, not a single one of us was apporached by anyone - male or female! aarrr ... How come?
Surprise 4 - When we came out of the pub, someone we knew walked past us and gave us the shocked look.
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
Amit Dhume's Last Day
Amit dropped by my office to say goodbye. Today is his last day. I knew him for less than 3 months. My impression of him was hell of a smart guy and very witty.Amit handed me a delft blue porcelain tile as a parting gift. According to him and said it was from his hometown Goa in India. I didn't knew then but now I do. Indeed it serve his trip. I now remember him.
A Momento From National Trust Council
Time flies. Before I know it, I have served 2 terms at the National Trust Council. I am now serving my third term. At the appreciation lunch, I received a momento from the Chief Executive of InfoComm Development Authority.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
What Loo Fei thinks about my resignation
"I was a bit surprise by your departure as I thought you enjoyed the job. However, I believe you must have good reasons for making this decision. It is something especially good to have the freedom of choice.
I think it is a good idea for you to be a part-time consultant for FIs and regulators (in developing countries), particularly in the Basel II age. This would make the best use of your experience and meantime give you ample time to put up your feet and relax. Also, it is the trend to work from home. I know that Boeing, Seattle asks its senior managers to show up in the office only for one day a week. The Internet has brought big changes in office management. Of course, it is not surprising to hear baby crying when discussing business over the phone. And most housewives don't like to have a "live-in" worker during the daytime."
I think it is a good idea for you to be a part-time consultant for FIs and regulators (in developing countries), particularly in the Basel II age. This would make the best use of your experience and meantime give you ample time to put up your feet and relax. Also, it is the trend to work from home. I know that Boeing, Seattle asks its senior managers to show up in the office only for one day a week. The Internet has brought big changes in office management. Of course, it is not surprising to hear baby crying when discussing business over the phone. And most housewives don't like to have a "live-in" worker during the daytime."
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
OfficeNet Annoucement
My employer announced today thru' OfficeNet my resignation effective 1 Mar 06.
So what will I be doing after 1 Mar 06?
As of today I really haven't got anything firmed up. There was a suggestion I open a café in sleepy Penang. Some ex-colleagues suggested I join them in starting a consulting practice. Apparently there is a big demand in Europe and US on how to handle birdflu and given my experiences in dealing with SARS, and more recently preparing for birdflu and protection against terrorist attacks, I look very qualified to advise them in this area.
One thing for sure, I am not ready to retire yet. My interests are in risk, technology and payment systems areas. It would be really nice to be able to work for IMF or World bank in some of their technical assistance scheme in these areas.
I will be thinking thru all the possibilities and if you have other ideas, I will be most happy to hear them.
So what will I be doing after 1 Mar 06?
As of today I really haven't got anything firmed up. There was a suggestion I open a café in sleepy Penang. Some ex-colleagues suggested I join them in starting a consulting practice. Apparently there is a big demand in Europe and US on how to handle birdflu and given my experiences in dealing with SARS, and more recently preparing for birdflu and protection against terrorist attacks, I look very qualified to advise them in this area.
One thing for sure, I am not ready to retire yet. My interests are in risk, technology and payment systems areas. It would be really nice to be able to work for IMF or World bank in some of their technical assistance scheme in these areas.
I will be thinking thru all the possibilities and if you have other ideas, I will be most happy to hear them.
